Karnataka Elections: Which way are the winds blowing in Karnataka?

Karnataka Elections|  Elections are due in less than a month’s time in Karnataka and everyone is eager to see the outcome. Be it the political parties, the industry, the aam aadmi, the downtrodden and especially the pollsters. No state in the south has been so complicated like Karnataka when it comes to elections since many […]

Karnataka Elections|

Elections are due in less than a month’s time in Karnataka and everyone is eager to see the outcome. Be it the political parties, the industry, the aam aadmi, the downtrodden and especially the pollsters. No state in the south has been so complicated like Karnataka when it comes to elections since many pollsters and agencies haven’t predicted the outcome accurately since the past 2 decades.

Unlike the other states in the south where the contest has been mainly direct between 2 parties, here it has been 3-way contest since 1990s and due to that no party has been able to cross the halfway mark in 2004, 2008 & 2018. In 1994 the Janata Dal got majority while in 1999 & 2013 Congress got majority. The BJP although being the single largest party in 2004, 2008 & 2018 has never crossed the majority mark anytime.

This election is a challenge for all the 3 major parties in the state

BJP – The party has never won the state with a majority. This time they are going all the way out to win the elections with a majority. Moreover, Karnataka being the only state for BJP in the south, they cannot afford to lose it given that they are looking at capturing power in the neighbouring Telangana which will go to polls this year end. A loss in Karnataka will only be a negative for the party in the neighbouring Telangana.

Since 1980s no incumbent government has never been re-elected. Will BJP break the jinx? Also, will BJP buckle the internal rivalry in many constituencies wherein many old timers have not been given tickets to contest this time?

Congress – The only state in the south where it is strong and well positioned to win the elections which will be a booster to the party in the upcoming state elections of Telangana, Rajasthan, MP & Chhattisgarh in this year end. The party has been reeling under losses in various state elections like Kerala, Goa, Assam, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and the north-eastern states during the past 2-3 yrs.

The only solace was the win in Himachal Pradesh. Although the BJP has been instrumental in weakening the Congress in states like Uttarakhand, Gujarat, Assam and the north-eastern states, it hasn’t been able to do the same in Karnataka given the party is still strong with presence across all the regions of the state. Unlike in many other states wherein they don’t have strong leaders, in Karnataka they have strong leaders across the state.

JD(S) – Since the past 2 decades, the party with its strong presence in the Old Mysuru Region comprising of Bangalore Urban, Bangalore Rural, Mysore, Tumkur, Kolar, Chikballapur, Hassan, Mandya & Chamarajanagar districts has been holding on to its vote bank of about 18% to 20%. The number of seats won by the party has been varying to a high of 58 in 2004 and to a low of 18 in 2008.

In the subsequent elections the party has won 40 & 37 seats with majority from the old mysore region and about 3-5 from the other parts of the state. Of late, many senior leaders from the party have left due to the growing dominance of the family. This election alone, there are about 7-8 contenders for tickets just from the family. This has been the reason in the past too wherein the long timers felt there was no growth in JDS given the party leadership baton being passed from Deve Gowda to his son Kumaraswamy.

Current BJP CM Basavaraj Bommai and the previous Congress CM Siddaramaiah were previously with the JDS. This time would be very crucial for the JDS to see if their vote bank is still intact or are they losing out. Although they cannot win the majority to form a government, they could still be in a position to support either BJP or Congress in case of a hung assembly by demanding the CM seat.

Many of the opinion polls recently have been predicting Congress to be the single largest party. While some like C Voter have given a majority for the Congress, others have predicted the party to win anywhere between 100-110. As for BJP, no pollster has given a majority for the party although some have predicted BJP to be the single largest party. As for JDS they are predicted to win anywhere between 25-35 seats.

Since 2004, many of the agencies and pollsters have been getting wrong in their predictions in many of the state elections. Not many have predicted the win for LDF in Kerala and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal in 2021. Many have also predicted a tough fight in TN but it was a clean sweep by DMK alliance. In the recent Himachal Pradesh elections, none have predicted a win for Congress nor a sweep by AAP in Punjab.

BJP is facing anti-incumbency due to non-performance and corruption. Although, the state has been voting primarily for BJP in parliament elections since 2004, for the state elections, the pattern has always been different. Double engine government has not worked in Karnataka since 1990s yet the state has developed rapidly in all spheres and is amongst the top 5 states in the country. Ground reality is people are looking for. -Mahesh From Bengalure for Vidhaatha.com